Tone Vays: Bitcoin Price Won’t Leave $6K-$10K Range Until 2021

Tone Vays: Bitcoin Price Won’t Leave $6K-$10K Range Until 2021

The S&P 500 is in danger of a major crash in the event of a daily close below 3,000 points, warns Tone Vays as data shows Bitcoin is 95% correlated.

Bitcoin (BTC) being 95% correlated with the S&P 500 may haunt traders this week as one analyst warned a 400-point crash could soon hit. 

In the latest episode of his Trading Bitcoin YouTube series, Tone Vays focused on Bitcoin falling in line with stocks. 


BTC/USD dipped on June 25 as markets broadly lost on the back of fresh coronavirus infection worries. 

Despite bullish news for Bitcoin this week, the largest cryptocurrency’s close correlation to stock markets returned to the spotlight as bearish pressure mounted. At press time, BTC/USD had staved off a dip below $9,000 to circle $9,200. 

Theories had long claimed that Bitcoin was “decoupling” from macro influences until this week — despite data similarly showing the extent of correlation in particular with the S&P 500.

Along with the rise in infections, markets were also troubled by above-forecast unemployment data from the United States, Bloomberg reported on Thursday — 1.48 million weekly.

Vays summarized:

“Like I’ve been saying for months now, I have no reason to walk away from my prediction early in the year that Bitcoin is going to get stuck between $6,000 and $10,000 for the majority of this year.”

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 3-month chart

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 3-month chart. Source: Skew


On a technical level, concerning for Vays was Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI), while the BitMEX funding rate, which typically runs contrary to market indicators, was flashing bullish on Thursday.

“Right now, the BitMEX funding rate is favoring the bulls, saying that traders on BitMEX are a little bit overzealous to the downside,” he continued.

The RSI breaking below a long-term trendline in June came at the same time as higher Bitcoin price levels compared to May — a notable divergence, says Vays.

Should bears win out, a potential low for BTC/USD should lie in the $7,000 zone, with an RSI of around 30, he added.

For stocks, the outlook was bleak — the absence of a firm support zone could send the S&P 500 crashing by 400 points, or 12%, in the event of a weak close. 

Previously, different analysis warned that this month would set the scene for a mass stock market correction event.

Researcher: Satoshi Nakamoto Apparently Didn't Mine Bitcoin for First 5 Minutes

Researcher: Satoshi Nakamoto Apparently Didn't Mine Bitcoin for First 5 Minutes

According to the latest research from Sergio Demian Lerner, Satoshi likely restrained himself from mining Bitcoin in the first five minutes of the block interval.

Sergio Demian Lerner, a researcher known for his work on the mining patterns of the original Bitcoin (BTC) miner whom he identified as Patoshi, published a new blog post in which he discusses his new observations. This time Lerner focused on the Bitcoin block timestamps.

Apparently, Satoshi (we’ll be referring to the original miner as Satoshi) barely mined a block in the first five minutes. This cannot be random as the probability of a miner finding a solution to the hash puzzle in the first five minutes is 0.39. The probability of a dominant miner like Satoshi trying to mine in the five minutes without any success is almost zero.

Patoshi block timestamps (the X-axis shows buckets of 10 seconds each)

Patoshi block timestamps (the X-axis shows buckets of 10 seconds each). Source: Bitslog.

It is not clear why Satoshi was not mining in the five minutes of the new block interval. One possible explanation is that he wanted to give an opportunity to other miners to mine some Bitcoins for themselves. 

Patoshi mining

Patoshi mining. Source: Cointelegraph, Bitslog.

In the beginning, there were very few miners besides Satoshi and he possessed significantly more hashrate than the rest of the network. Sastoshi was fully aware that it was paramount for the success of Bitcoin to get as many people involved as possible. In a way, Satoshi might have been "spotting" other miners — first five minutes it’s all yours, but if there is no one to mine, he'd get the job done:


Source: Twitter

Later, Lerner agreed that the dynamic hashrate adjustment within a single block interval would have been “overkill." Also, based on these observations, he concluded that up to block 16,000, Satoshi must have had about 99% of the total hashrate.

Satoshi’s share of Bitcoin hashrate

Satoshi’s share of Bitcoin hashrate. Source: Dan Held.

Seemingly, Satoshi’s goal was to provide just enough hashrate to make the network secure without disincentivizing other participants. According to the early Bitcoin developer Laszlo Hanyecz, Satoshi was paranoid about malicious actors attacking Bitcoin before it had a chance to gain enough strength, he even had a GPU miner ready to defend it.

This is one more interesting fact that we cannot fully explain that may suggest a certain amount of altruism on the part of the Bitcoin creator.

ISIS-Affiliated News Website to Collect Donations with Monero

ISIS-Affiliated News Website to Collect Donations with Monero

A news website for the jihadist movement associated with ISIS has adopted Monero donations after having taken donations in Bitcoin for three years.

The terrorist organization known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, is beginning to switch to Monero (XMR) to accept donations from the public.

As reported by blockchain intelligence company, Whitestream, and independently confirmed by Cointelegraph, a news website affiliated with the terrorist organization and the jihadist movement has updated its donations page on June 21 to only accept Monero.

According to the tutorial page published by the website, Monero is a more secure method of payment that cannot be traced. The page then explains how users can buy and send Monero, while including the XMR address.

Previously, the website accepted Bitcoin (BTC) donations since December 2017. According to Whitestream, the organization consolidated the BTC it received into a single address, which currently contains 0.295 BTC worth about $2,700.

The website posts news on the reported “successes” of the organization, which since its ousting from Syria, Iraq and Libya has primarily been operating underground in Egypt’s Sinai region and in Northern Nigeria.


While many of the regulatory steps taken for cryptocurrencies seek to curtail this exact type of activity, a recent report by Chainalysis debunks the commonly held belief that cryptocurrencies play a significant role in terrorism financing. Amid speculation of ISIS war chests hidden in Bitcoin, Chainalysis said that less than $10,000 were raised for terrorism through crypto, while it is also unlikely that they used cryptocurrencies to store their oil sale proceeds.

In March, a woman was sentenced to 13 years in prison after laundering money for terrorism via Bitcoin, though it is unclear whether the authorities relied on blockchain analysis to catch her.

In December 2019, ISIS reportedly experimented with switching to blockchain-based communication apps.


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